There has been something of a shift in the conventional wisdom about President Donald Trump’s tariffs of late.
On the one hand, economists and political analysts have warmed to the idea that Trump is more or less getting what he bargained for out of his threats of a global trade war. This has come as a number of foreign nations come to the table and, in a few cases, cut apparent deals.
On the other, that’s different from saying Trump’s tactics will ultimately work. And the picture there certainly got more complicated this week, including with yet more judges suggesting they could rein in Trump’s tariff authorities and the increasingly troubling economic numbers highlighted by another bad jobs report Friday. Many have been wondering when (and if) the economic pain many economists predicted would actually arrive, and signs are increasing that it might be upon us.
In other words, we seem to be at an inflection point, particularly with Trump signaling Thursday that he’ll finally press forward with global tariffs (probably!) next week.
But how is all of this playing? Are people reevaluating their previous positions?
It’s too soon to gauge public opinion on Trump’s latest moves this week. But the short answer is that we haven’t seen many shifts of late in the already pretty dismal views of Trump’s trade war at the macro level; if anything, views appear to have gotten slightly worse.
But there have been some key shifts that suggest his base is more on-board than it used to be, which could allow Trump to press forward.
Overall, foreign trade and tariffs remain some of the president’s worst issues, and it continues to look like the policy that very few people (besides Trump) are asking for right now.
Gallup polling shows Trump’s approval on “foreign trade” dropping from 42% in February to 36% in mid-July.
Fox News polling around the same time showed Americans disapproved of Trump on tariffs by a 26-point margin, virtually the same as in April (25 points).
And CBS News-YouGov polling shows people increasingly dislike that this is a priority for Trump.
Its most recent data, from mid-July, show 61% say Trump is too focused on tariffs, similar to April but up from March. It also showed a new high in the percentage of people who say Trump isn’t focused enough on lowering prices (70%). (This also ties into the tariffs, because tariffs are often inflationary.)
The CBS data also show a slight drop in the percentage of Americans who think Trump’s policies are making them better off financially (23% in March versus 18% today), and an increase in perceptions that his policies are making food prices increase (52% in March versus 62% today).
Overall, Americans went from opposing the tariffs by 12 points in March to opposing them by 20 points today.
So if there is a vibe shift on Trump’s tariffs, it hasn’t really shown up in the polls – at least yet.
But as with most things Trump, overall views probably don’t matter as much as how his base feels. The president has proven over and over again that he’s happy to plow ahead as long as his supporters are on board.
And those supporters might be growing in their tolerance for this gambit.
The percentage of Republicans who say Trump is focused too much on tariffs in the CBS poll actually fell from 34% in April to 28% today.
And polling from Quinnipiac University suggests Republicans are also less pessimistic about economic pain from the tariffs.
Republicans were already much more patient with Trump’s gambit. More than 8 in 10 said in that polling in both April and today that the tariffs were likely to help the economy over the long term. That’s been consistent.
But there has been a shift in Trump’s favor in views of their short-term impact. While Republicans back in April were about evenly split on whether the tariffs would help or hurt in the short term, they now say by about a 2-to-1 margin that they’ll help over the short term.
While Republicans in April said 46-44% that the tariffs would help in the short term, they now say that 62-30%.
Republicans also overwhelmingly express confidence in Trump’s strategy on tariffs, saying it’s working, 84-9%, in Quinnipiac’s July polling.
All of which suggests Trump’s leash on this has lengthened with his base, which matters a great deal. It means GOP lawmakers who might feel compelled to try and check Trump on this gambit will probably be less likely to do so.
But all of this is subject to change, particularly if the economic numbers look suspect like many economists predicted they will. How Republicans respond to that is when the rubber will really meet the road and the White House could face some really hard choices.
