Russia-Ukraine War Update for March 12: Ukraine Abandons Kursk Salient

Ukraine has said it is “ready” to accept a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire after hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, as Russian forces plug on with advances in its Kursk region, where Ukraine still occupies a chunk of territory.

Here is the daily briefing:

Ukraine Agrees to U.S. Proposal of a 30-Day Ceasefire

Ukraine has agreed to U.S.-outlined conditions for a full ceasefire with Russia that would last 30 days, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said, following Tuesday’s talks in the Saudi port city of Jeddah.

The U.S. has also lifted the ban on all American military aid and U.S.-derived intelligence sharing it had imposed on Ukraine ahead of the talks, and breathed fresh life into U.S.-Ukrainian negotiations for the bilateral mineral deal.

The Ukrainian delegation proposed a partial ceasefire covering the air and sea, which would put a halt to the exchange of missile and drones strikes between Kyiv and Moscow. It also lobbied for an exchange of prisoners of war, other detainees, and the return of Ukrainian children taken into Russia.

But “the U.S. side proposed taking an even bigger first step—a 30-day full interim ceasefire, not only stopping missile, drone, and bomb attacks, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement.

“Ukraine is ready to accept this proposal—we see it as a positive step and are ready to take it,” Zelensky said.

The U.S. must now “convince Russia to do the same,” the Ukrainian leader added, saying that, if Moscow agreed, the ceasefire would come into force immediately.

“We’ll take this offer now to the Russians, and we hope that they’ll say yes,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “The ball is now in their court.”

U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, told reporters he would meet with his Russian counterpart “in the coming days.” Trump said in separate remarks to the media that he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and there would be a “big meeting with Russia” on Wednesday.

European officials cautiously backed the announcement, but the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said in a statement: “It is now for Russia to show its willingness to achieve peace.” The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the bloc was “ready to play its full part, together with its partners, in the upcoming peace negotiations.”

Russian state media reported on Wednesday that the head of Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, had spoken with John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, and agreed on “regular” contact between the two agencies.

The talks in Saudi Arabia appear to have achieved what Ukrainian officials had hoped—to mend relations with the White House after the pausing of aid and intelligence sharing, and in the wake of the public dressing down Zelensky received in the Oval Office late last month.

What is less clear is how the proposal will be received in Russia, and how apparently irreconcilable claims from Kyiv and Moscow on key issues, such as territory, will be handled.

Moscow Official Warns ‘It Will Be Different With Russia’

Konstantin Kosachev, a Russian lawmaker who heads-up Russia’s Federation Council international affairs committee, said a ceasefire deal would be on the Kremlin’s terms—not dictated by the U.S.

“Russia is advancing, and therefore it will be different with Russia,” Kosachev said in a post to messaging app Telegram. Any agreements would be “on our terms, not American,” he said, adding: “Victory will be ours.”

What Happened to Trump’s Ukraine Envoy?

There are questions over the role of Trump’s Russia and Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, who appeared noticeably absent from the press conferences led by Rubio, Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

“Kellogg’s role is very much in question,” an anonymous Trump administration official told Politico’s NatSec Daily newsletter. “There are already too many principals, plus Witkoff, trying to play the hero on ending the war. Kellogg is limping along, adding to the confusion about who does what.”

White House national security spokesperson, James Hewitt, told the outlet: “President Trump has utilized the talents of multiple senior administration officials to assist in bringing the war in Ukraine to a peaceful resolution. Gen. Kellogg remains a valued part of the team, especially as it relates to talks with our European allies.”

Russia Advances in Kursk

Russia has continued to quickly advance in and around the town of Sudzha, the last significant Ukrainian-held settlement in the Russian border region of Kursk.

Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk in August 2024, and had held on to a chunk of territory known as the Ukrainian salient, despite slow Russian and North Korean efforts to peel back Kyiv’s control. Kursk was one of the big bargaining chips Ukraine was intending to use in peace negotiations.

Reports in the past day have appeared to suggest Ukraine could be pulling back its forces from Sudzha. However, Ukraine’s top soldier, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, had said on Monday that there was “no threat of encirclement” of Ukrainian units in and around the town.

Russian state news agency Tass published footage on Wednesday it claimed showed the Russian tricolor flag in the center of Sudzha. Newsweek could not independently verify this.

Ruslan Leviev, a Russian opposition figure who runs the Conflict Intelligence Team open-source intelligence project, said on Wednesday that “Ukrainian troops are leaving” Sudzha.

Reports in recent weeks have suggested thousands of Ukrainian troops could be at risk of encirclement by Russian forces in Kursk as Moscow plowed on with efforts to destroy vital supply lines. Ukrainian newspaper the Kyiv Independent reported on Friday that Russian forces had ripped up Ukrainian logistics routes in Kursk, including bridges around the city.

Kyiv had acknowledged a Russian offensive near Sudzha on Saturday, sharing footage it said showed thwarted Russian paratroopers traveling along a gas pipeline close to Sudzha and attempting to secure a “foothold” around the town. This could not be independently verified.

One pro-war Russian account reported at the weekend that Russian troops had crawled through miles of pipeline tunnels, often sitting and “waiting for the command to storm for several more days.”

“Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have likely begun attacking Sudzha,” the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said on Tuesday. Geolocated footage shows Russia has seized a set of villages southeast and east of Sudzha, while advancing to the north and south of the settlement, the think tank said.

Overnight Strikes

Ukraine’s air force said early on Wednesday that Russia had targeted the southern port city of Odesa and the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, which is Zelensky’s hometown, with ballistic missiles.

Russia also launched 133 strike drones at Ukraine overnight, the air force said, adding that 98 drones were intercepted, and another 20 veered off course.

Serhiy Lysak, the governor of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, said one 47-year-old woman had been killed, and nine others injured in Kryvyi Rih. Ukrainian officials in Odesa said Russia had struck port infrastructure, killing four Syrian citizens aged between 18 and 24, and damaging a Barbados-flagged vessel. Another Syrian citizen and a Ukrainian were also injured, according to local officials.

Moscow’s defense ministry said on Wednesday that it had “destroyed” 21 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 12 over its border Bryansk region, two over Kursk, and five over the Black Sea.