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Published On 6 May 2025
United States President Donald Trump’s broad array of tariffs on foreign goods has spooked consumers, businesses and the stock market. But what will the specific impact be for typical American consumers?
US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer offered a figure on April 27 on CNN’s State of the Union.
The Democrat from New York said, as a candidate, Trump never fully explained to voters that tariffs would raise their costs. “It’s estimated it’ll raise the American costs … American families would have to pay about $4,000 more a year,” he said.
Calculating how typical households would be hit involves estimation and assumptions, especially given Trump’s frequent tinkering with what items will be tariffed and when. But Schumer’s figure is roughly in line with four independent estimates that PolitiFact identified.
Four of five estimates by groups with varying political ideologies range from $3,100 to $4,900 a year; the midpoint of that range is in line with Schumer’s figure. A fifth group estimated the cost to consumers would be $1,243.
The estimate variations stem from the groups’ differing assumptions about how the tariffs will be absorbed into the economy.
Schumer’s office did not respond to inquiries for this article.
Several groups’ estimates hover around $4,000
We identified five estimates on Trump’s tariffs’ effect on US families, based on the tariffs he imposed before April 2 (including those on Canada and Mexico), the 10 percent across-the-board tariffs on virtually every country, and the 145 percent tariff on China. The estimates do not include the impact of higher country-by-country tariffs that Trump announced on April 2 but paused for 90 days beginning on April 9.
Here are the estimates in descending order.
Yale Budget Lab: The most recent estimate from the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University shows an average loss per household of $4,900. The lab also offered a more limited calculation that accounts for changes in consumer behaviour because of tariffs without factoring those in as losses; this worked out to a $2,600 loss per family.
The analysis found that low-earning families would be hit hardest. A family earning roughly $30,000 to $40,000 would lose 5.1 percent of its income, more than twice the proportional hit for a family earning well above $100,000.
Bigger tariff costs for households at the lower end of the income spectrum
Center for American Progress: The liberal group estimated an average loss of $4,600 annually.
American Action Forum: The centre-right think tank told PolitiFact that its pre-April 9 estimate of $3,900 loss per household remains a solid guess even though it was calculated using a 60 percent tariff on China, rather than the current 145 percent. Jacob Jensen, the group’s trade policy analyst, said tariffs as high as 145 percent curb consumer purchases so much that they tend to bring in less revenue than tariffs that are set at lower rates.
Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center: The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimated that the average household loss would be $3,100.
Tax Foundation: The centre-right Tax Foundation put the average loss lower than the other four, at $1,243.
Erica York, the Tax Foundation’s vice president of federal tax policy, told PolitiFact that her group’s analysis has a more limited scope, encompassing households’ 2025 direct losses of income from higher taxes.
York said other groups’ estimates go beyond this, including loss in quality of life from having to switch to inferior products, factoring in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy response or using 2026 – assuming that it produces a full year of impact – rather than 2025, when the tariffs will be in force for less than a full year.
Differing methods such as these would produce variations in numbers, she said, citing the Yale Budget Lab’s dual estimates as an example.
Our ruling
Schumer said “it’s estimated” that Trump’s tariffs will mean “American families would have to pay about $4,000 more a year”.
Calculating the tariffs’ impact requires guesswork and is complicated by Trump’s frequent pauses on certain tariffs.
Four independent groups’ estimates range from $3,100 a year to $4,900 a year on average. The fifth, using a more restrictive method, estimated a $1,243 loss.
Based on these estimates, the statement is accurate but needs additional information, so we rate it Mostly True.
