President Donald Trump’s approval rating among low-engagement voters has seen a “complete inversion,” according to new polling.
Why It Matters
Previous analysis had shown that “opt-out” voters—low-engagement citizens who rarely consume political news and often skip elections—broke for Trump by double digits in 2024, reversing a historic Democratic advantage among nonvoters.
For example, a post-election survey from Navigator Research found that the voters who paid the most attention to the news in 2024 voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points, while those who paid no attention at all voted for Trump by 19 points.
However, new data suggests that the tables may turn on Trump, with “opt-out” voters now driving a dramatic collapse in his approval rating.
What To Know
New polling shows that Trump’s approval among disengaged voters has dropped faster and more dramatically than among any other group, reversing the very dynamic that propelled him to victory.
Data from Pew and YouGov indicate that support among so-called “opt-out” voters—those least likely to follow the news or vote—has cratered. Trump’s net approval fell by as much as 33 points in just three months among people who say they consume little or no political news.
In the first poll by YouGov/The Economist of Trump’s second term, conducted January 26–28 among 1,577 adults, net approval among the least-engaged news consumers was +12. In their latest poll, fielded April 25–28 among 1,785 adults, that figure dropped to -21.
In comparison, among Americans who say they follow the news “most of the time,” Trump’s approval fell by just 14 points.
Meanwhile, polling by the Pew Research Center also found that Trump’s approval rating has taken a hit among people who did not vote in 2024.
In Pew’s January 27 to February 2 poll, conducted among 5,086 adults, 44 percent of 2024 nonvoters approved of Trump’s job performance. Fast-forward two months, and Pew’s latest poll, conducted between April 7 and 13 among 3,589 respondents, shows that figure had dropped to 31 percent—a 13-point decline, outpacing the 7-point slide among the general public.
This shift amounts to what G Elliott Morris, the former director of 538, calls a “complete inversion” of the political engagement dynamic that defined the 2024 election.
“The people who pay the least attention to the news and are the least involved in the political process are now the least likely to support Trump, rather than the most likely,” he wrote in his blog, Strength in Numbers.
So what changed?
According to Morris, it’s not about ideology but economics. Many opt-out voters likely remembered the pre-pandemic economy under Trump as relatively strong, associating Joe Biden’s term with inflation and instability, he said. But now that Trump is back in office and economic conditions remain shaky, with rising prices, market volatility, and a stubborn cost-of-living crisis, those same voters are expressing frustration.
He added that this trend reflects a broader phenomenon: the engagement gap. Many Americans are tuning out politics in today’s polarized media environment, but that doesn’t make them immune to its consequences, Morris wrote. Instead, they become unusually responsive to real-world conditions, particularly economic ones, and are less likely to filter their opinions through partisan media or elite discourse.
As Morris puts it, disengaged voters “may be more rational in reacting to economic stimulus,” even if they’re less attuned to policy nuance.
“These are people who don’t read The New York Times, don’t watch Sunday shows, and don’t track policy details,” Morris wrote. “But they notice when their bills go up, their rent spikes, or their 401(k)s shrink.”
Rebecca Noble/Getty Images
The drop in support for Trump among low-engagement voters has come in the wake of worsening economic signals. A surprise spike in inflation in February was followed by market turmoil after Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on “Liberation Day” last month. The announcement triggered an immediate sell-off, briefly shaking investor confidence before markets rebounded days later.
However, the broader economy has yet to stabilize. In late April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the first economic contraction in three years.
As a result, recent polls have shown a dramatic erosion of public confidence in Trump’s handling of his job.
For example, in ActiVote’s latest poll, Trump’s approval rating stood at 45 percent, while 51 percent disapproved, giving the president a net approval of -6 points. ActiVote’s March poll showed Trump with a net approval rating of -1 point, with 48 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.
And in the latest YouGov/Yahoo poll, conducted April 25-28 among 1,597 respondents, his approval dropped from 44 percent in March to 42 percent, while disapproval rose from 50 percent to 53 percent, widening his net negative from –6 to –11. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Emerson College released a poll last week that showed Trump’s approval rating had dropped marginally, from 47 percent to 45 percent, since March, while his disapproval rating remained the same at 45 percent. The most recent poll was conducted April 25-28 among 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Polls have also shown fears about the state of the economy on the rise.
A Navigator Research poll conducted April 24–28 found that Trump’s net approval on the economy has dropped to -16, with just 40 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving—his worst rating on the economy in the group’s tracking history. His numbers on inflation and tariffs were even more dismal, with net approval ratings of -29 and -26, respectively.
Other surveys reflect this growing concern. A recent Decision Desk HQ/NewsNation poll showed that 82 percent of voters are worried about a potential recession, and 59 percent say inflation is the country’s biggest problem.
Amid such an economic climate, Democrats see an opening to win over low-engagement voters. In a recent op-ed, Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign manager, Ron Flaherty, wrote that while winning engaged voters is about “facts,” winning disengaged voters is about “attention.” He argued that Democrats must seize this moment to offer a compelling economic vision, not just to oppose Trump but to provide an alternative.
Still, the volatility of opt-out voters presents a warning for both parties. Morris notes that “we may be in an environment where engagement polarization means it’s inherently harder for incumbents to win re-election.”
If current trends hold, Morris argues, Trump and the Republican Party may have squandered a key strategic asset: the support of voters who, in 2024, weren’t really paying attention but showed up anyway.
“Trump has lost arguably the best advantage the Republicans had for the future. And if conditions remain poor, they may lose ground, not gain it,” Morris wrote.
What People Are Saying
G Elliott Morris, the former director of 538, wrote in a blog post: “The people who pay the least attention to the news and are the least involved in the political process are now the least likely to support Trump, rather than the most likely. That is a complete inversion of the relationship between engagement and support for Trump in 2024, and a return to the old dynamic of less-informed/engaged voters being systematically more friendly to Democratic candidates and causes.”
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, the evolving tariff situation and concerns about a recession.
