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Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News star who is deeply embedded within Donald Trump’s inner circle, warned the president this week that a strike on Iran “would certainly result” in a war that would cost billions of dollars and lead to “thousands of American deaths” in the region.
“The cost of future acts of terrorism on American soil may be even higher. Those aren’t guesses,” the MAGA podcaster added on Monday evening. “Those are the Pentagon’s own estimates. A bombing campaign against Iran will set off a war, and it will be America’s war. Don’t let the propagandists lie to you.”
The far-right commentator’s remarks came on the heels of Trump’s air strikes across Yemen this past weekend that killed dozens, which were followed by an explicit threat to the Iranian government of “dire consequences” if the Houthis engaged in any further retaliatory attacks.
“Let nobody be fooled! The hundreds of attacks being made by Houthi, the sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen, who are hated by the Yemeni people, all emanate from, and are created by, IRAN,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday. “Any further attack or retaliation by the ‘Houthis’ will be met with great force, and there is no guarantee that that force will stop there.”
The president continued: “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”
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Unlike the previous administration, Trump has also given the U.S. Central Command the authority to launch offensive strikes against Houthi targets whenever it deems it appropriate. Former President Joe Biden, on the other hand, had required White House approval for all offensive attacks in the region, though he allowed American forces to engage in defensive strikes on their own.
The president’s ramped-up rhetoric against Iran comes as the entire Middle East is once again reaching a boiling point. Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that killed at least 413 Palestinians this week represented the deadliest wave of attacks in months and shattered the ceasefire deal that was reached in January.
The renewed strikes by Israel also laid bare Trump’s failure to live up to his promise of quickly ending the war with Hamas, one former Israeli hostage negotiator told CNN. Additionally, Israel called on Trump to ramp up pressure against Iran last month as it warned that a “military option” was required to prevent the republic from building a nuclear arsenal.
With all that said, could Carlson perhaps pull the president away from his game of brinksmanship with the Islamic Republic and reverse the escalation to a war with Iran? It’s entirely possible, at least based on the last time Trump reached this point.
During Trump’s first term in office, Carlson — who has positioned himself as the leader of the American right’s isolationist wing when it comes to foreign policy — split from the rest of his Fox News cohorts and sharply criticized the president’s decision to authorize the killing of Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani.
“Is Iran really the greatest threat we face? And who’s actually benefiting from this? And why are we continuing to ignore the decline of our own country in favor of jumping into another quagmire from which there is no obvious exit? By the way, if we’re still in Afghanistan, 19 years, sad years, later, what makes us think there’s a quick way out of Iran?” Carlson said on his then-primetime Fox show in early January 2020.
“Nobody is thinking like that right now,” Carlson continued, steering clear from condemning Trump directly. “Instead, chest-beaters like Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska are making the usual war-like noises, the noises they always make.”
Following Iranian counter-attacks, Carlson hosted a show that appeared to be laser-focused on convincing the president to refrain from escalating the situation with the Middle Eastern country. “I continue to believe the president doesn’t want a full-blown war,” Carlson declared. “Some around him might, but I think most sober people don’t want that.”
Fourteen hours later, Trump told the nation in a televised address that he would not be retaliating against Iran over its missile strikes. According to sources close to the president at the time, Trump had indeed watched Carlson’s program the night before. Furthermore, the president told confidants “that Carlson’s strong advocacy not to escalate the situation in Iran played a role in his decision-making” regarding Iran at the time, according to the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, the night of Trump’s announcement that he wouldn’t be pursuing military action against Iran, Carlson expressed relief that “we’re back from the brink” before praising the president for saying the pause in hostilities was a good thing. “That’s a big claim, but in this case, it is not an overstatement,” the conservative host stated.
Since Carlson’s unceremonious firing from Fox News in 2023, the far-right commentator has only seemed to draw closer to Trump’s orbit — and his influence on the president has appeared to grow. Carlson was a major presence at last year’s Republican National Convention and helped convince Trump to choose JD Vance as his running mate.
Since Trump’s electoral victory, Carlson has continued to serve as something of an informal adviser to the president and his personal documentarian. The influence of the former Fox News host, who has long taken a pro-Kremlin approach to the Ukraine War, is evident in the president’s own aggressive stance towards Ukraine and sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin amid peace negotiations. In the meantime, with Trump’s administration chock full of Fox personalities, Carlson’s son Buckley was hired to be part of Vance’s press team.
Carlson urging the president to not bomb Iran has also earned him some plaudits from anti-war progressives and the isolationist right, while at the same time prompting hawkish conservatives to blast him.
“I hate to say this but Carlson is 100% correct here,” Zeteo founder Mehdi Hasan tweeted.
“Reality Check: The Pentagon has NEVER released any public estimate or study about the impact of strikes against Iran’s nuclear program,” former State Department advisor on Iran Gabriel Noronha groused about Carlson’s remarks. “This is pure fantasy and fearmongering. Just like the radical left fearmongered that Trump taking out Qassem Soleimani would lead to WWIII.”
