Former President Barack Obama would defeat President Donald Trump by a double-digit margin if both were eligible to run for a third term, according to a new hypothetical poll.
Why It Matters
The polling could offer a view of Americans’ attitudes toward Obama and Trump, both of whom remain hugely influential in their parties and national politics despite both being barred constitutionally from future presidential bids.
The survey comes at a time of ongoing debate over presidential term limits and feature both figures as hypothetical contenders in a race precluded by the 22nd Amendment.
These results also speak to the highly polarized nature of American politics, with speculation about possible constitutional amendments, and hint at the continued appeal both presidents hold over large segments of the electorate. Since any attempt to overturn the two-term rule would be an unprecedented and formidable political process, these findings reflect more on the legacies of Obama and Trump than actual election dynamics.
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What To Know
Obama received 52 percent support in a head-to-head against Trump, who garnered 41 percent, according to a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll of 1,013 registered voters conducted July 9 to July 10. The lead fell well outside of the plus or minus 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
The survey found Obama performed particularly strongly among Hispanic voters (73 percent support) and Black voters (68 percent support). Among independents, 50 percent favored Obama, compared to 39 percent for Trump.
While Obama defeated Trump in the poll, it found that other Democratic candidates would not fair as well.
The poll found that Trump would narrowly defeat former presidential candidate and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former President Joe Biden in hypothetical matchups, underscoring Obama’s standing among recent Democratic leaders. Obama retained a high favorability rating at 59 percent, compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
A previous survey by Overton Insights, conducted from March 24 to March 28 with 1,103 registered voters, placed Obama 6 points ahead of Trump in a theoretical 2028 election, with 53 percent backing Obama and 47 percent backing Trump. The margin of error in that poll was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Despite their popularity, both men are barred from running again by the 22nd Amendment which restricts any individual from being elected to the presidency more than twice. Amending or repealing the 22nd Amendment would require a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress as well as ratification by at least 38 state legislatures—a process considered extremely difficult.
There has been speculation about alternative paths, with Trump suggesting potential legal loopholes, including possibly serving as vice president to a running mate who would step aside, but constitutional experts widely regard such options as almost certainly blocked by existing law.
While some previous polling (including historic data from Zogby Analytics and Morning Consult) have shown tighter races, more recent national surveys point to a clear margin for Obama in a hypothetical 2028 rematch.
What People Are Saying
Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani to Newsweek via phone on Thursday: “A third Trump term is a political fantasy that has no legal basis in reality. The 22nd Amendment couldn’t be more clear. If Trump tried, he would be immediately struck down by the courts before he got anywhere near a ballot. His supporters and MAGAs should have other plans for 2028.”
President Donald Trump in remarks to NBC News in March 2025: “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”
Former President Barack Obama during a 2015 speech in Ethiopia: “There’s a lot that I’d like to do to keep America moving. But the law is the law, and no person is above the law, not even the president.”
Republican Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee, earlier this month following the passing of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”: “Thanks to President Trump, we’re finally reversing the damage caused by Big Government and Democrat cronies. Wins like this are exactly why he deserves serious consideration for a third term—AND why so many believe he belongs on Mt. Rushmore.”
Retired U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey told KING 5 News on Wednesday that Trump is “not even joking” about wanting a third term: “If not checked by the media, the American voters, the Congress, the court system, Mr. Trump will proceed to autocratic rule by decree.”
What Happens Next
Any serious attempt to allow a third presidential term would require monumental changes to the U.S. Constitution and is considered highly improbable by constitutional scholars and lawmakers. No legislation for constitutional amendment has advanced to a vote, and there is no current political momentum for such a change.
For now, these polls remain academic exercises, illustrating the lingering influence of Obama and Trump in public discourse.
