President Donald Trump’s most favorable pollster has warned that it could be “all over for MAGA” if the president gets the United States more deeply involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel.
“Kiss the Republican majority goodbye… For the next decade,” Rich Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “If he pulls the trigger, it’s all over for MAGA.”
Newsweek reached out to Baris for further comment via the Big Data Poll website.
Big Data Poll has given Trump the highest approval rating (+19) of any pollster in his second term so far. It is one of just two pollsters that are yet to record a negative approval rating, although its most recent survey recorded a major drop-off in approval, giving Trump a rating of just +1.
Why It Matters
A recent poll by the Ronald Reagan Institute, conducted before Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear program on Friday, shows that a majority of Republicans support Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
However, polling has also shown that Republican voters are worried about the U.S. being drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East. A Quinnipiac University poll last year found that 86 percent of Republican voters were concerned about it, with 52 percent saying they were “very concerned.”
Meanwhile, MAGA figures in recent days have been split on the issue, with some advocating for a strong response and others arguing that Trump’s supporters backed him because of his promise not to draw the U.S. into expensive foreign wars.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
What To Know
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday night that he was seeking a “real end” to the conflict.
“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, it’s very simple,” he said. “They should have done the deal. I told them, do the deal. So I don’t know. I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate.”
Trump told ABC News on Sunday that “it’s possible” the U.S. becomes involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel.
However, the Pentagon and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled on Monday that the U.S. does not plan to strike Iran ahead of Trump’s meeting with his national security staff in the Situation Room at the White House on Tuesday.
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that Trump would likely “take a colossal hit” in support from his base if he were to engage the U.S. directly in a conflict in the Middle East.
“Such action would represent the antithesis of how Trump has branded himself,” he said. “It could be the straw that breaks MAGA’s back.”
While some MAGA Republicans have slammed calls for the U.S. to become militarily involved in the conflict, others have backed a strong response to Iran.
“Everyone is finding out who are real America First/MAGA and who were fake and just said it bc it was popular,” Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, wrote in a lengthy post on X on Sunday.
“Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA. Wishing for murder of innocent people is disgusting. We are sick and tired of foreign wars. All of them.”
Her spokesperson, Alec Ernst, told Newsweek that “real MAGA is unified” and there was “no daylight between her and the president.”
Mark Levin, a conservative media figure and Trump ally, criticized Greene’s position and has been vocal in supporting military action against Iran.
“Real MAGA, that is Trump voters, overwhelmingly support destroying the Iranian Nazi regime,” he wrote on X on Tuesday.
The conflict began with Friday’s surprise Israeli attack on Iran’s military and nuclear program. Israel said its assault on Iran’s top military leaders, uranium enrichment sites and nuclear scientists is necessary to prevent its longtime foe from getting any closer to building an atomic weapon.
Israel’s strikes have killed at least 224 people since Friday.
Iran has retaliated by launching more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. So far, 24 people in Israel have been killed and more than 500 injured.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful. The U.S. and others had recently assessed that Tehran had not had an organized effort to pursue a nuclear weapon since 2003. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so.
What People Are Saying
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek: “There is no appetite for war in the American public. Trump, who has built himself up as a master dealmaker and who has argued only he could avert war and the kinds of embroilments for which he criticized Biden and others, would likely take a colossal hit in support with his base if he engages the U.S. directly in a Middle East conflict.
“Such action represent the complete opposite of how Trump has branded himself. This may be the straw that breaks MAGA’s back.”
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told Newsweek: “While there’s no national appetite for a ground war, it might depend on the nature of any such ‘war.’ Something aerial that succeeded in a regime change or some other kind of tangible ‘win’ and didn’t completely destabilize the region might not be fatal. But I agree that one of the aspects of MAGA that has appealed to the public is the emphasis on keeping the country out of international hot conflicts.”
President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday that “it’s possible” the U.S. becomes involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel.
“We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved.”
The White House said in a news release on Tuesday that Trump “has never wavered in his stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon—a pledge he has made repeatedly, both in office and on the campaign trail.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Fox News’ Jesse Watters on Monday: “[Trump’s] position has not changed. What you’re watching in real time is peace through strength and America first. Our job is to be strong. We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal. And we certainly hope that’s what happens here.
“And America first means we’re going to defend American personnel and American interests. So when you see jets and you see air defense assets and counter-UAS assets, that’s because my job as the Secretary of Defense is to ensure that our people are safe and that we’re strong.”
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, on X: “I don’t want to see Israel bombed or Iran bombed or Gaza bombed. I don’t want to see Ukraine bombed or Russia bombed. And we do NOT want to be involved or required to pay for ANY OF IT!!! We are $36+ TRILLION in debt and have mountains of our own problems.”
Representative Thomas Massie, a Trump ally, on X over the weekend: “This is not our war. We should not engage our military here. Furthermore, doing so would require a vote of Congress.”
What Happens Next
Talks between the U.S. and Iran were canceled over the weekend.
On Sunday, Tehran said that Iran would stop its strikes if Israel did the same. On Monday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, appeared to make a veiled outreach for the U.S. to step in and negotiate an end to hostilities between Israel and Iran.
Update 6/18/25, 4:10 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to add comments from Grant Davis Reeher.
This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.
