President Donald Trump’s tariffs have Americans increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, a new poll shows, as he moves to close trade deals and improve the situation with China amid fears the U.S. could slide into recession.
Why It Matters
Trump won the 2024 election in part due to people’s frustration with inflation and his promise to lead the U.S. into a new age of growth. But the economic outlook has substantially worsened due to his trade policies, risking the wrath of voters.
What To Know
About half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the possibility of the U.S. economy going into a recession in the next few months, according to the latest AP-NORC poll.
Roughly half of U.S. adults say that Trump’s trade policies will increase prices “a lot” and another three in 10 think prices could go up “somewhat.”
About six in 10 U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the cost of groceries in the next few months, while about half are highly concerned about the cost of big purchases, such as a car, cellphone or appliance.
Researchers surveyed 1,260 U.S. adults between April 17-21, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
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Trump’s Trade Movements
Markets suffered sharp losses in the days after Trump’s unleashing of reciprocal tariffs across the world, seeing a painful economic fallout ahead as supply chains are disrupted and costs soar for businesses and consumers.
They then recovered somewhat when Trump paused his reciprocal rates on all but China to allow space for trade negotiations, but investors are still gripped by uncertainty and the ever-changing trade picture.
Trump also has since softened his tone on China, saying he could substantially cut tariffs after hiking them severely, and urged Beijing to make a fair deal with him to resolve the trade dispute.
Many Americans are not convinced Trump’s tariffs are the right approach. About six in 10 say Trump has “gone too far” when it comes to imposing new tariffs, according to the AP-NORC poll.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said U.S. economic growth will come in at just 1.8 percent in 2025, down sharply from its previous forecast of 2.7 percent and a full percentage point below its 2024 expansion because of the trade war.
While the IMF does not see a recession in the U.S., it raised its probability of one happening from 25 percent to about 40 percent.
What People Are Saying
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that the Trump administration had received 18 written proposals on trade from other countries since the tariffs on April 2. She said the trade team had meetings with 34 countries this week.
“There is a lot of progress being made,” Leavitt told reporters, adding: “We are moving at Trump speed to ensure these deals are made on behalf of the American worker and the American people.”
James Pethokoukis, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, told Reuters: “You have a president who promised a golden age. But everything that’s supposed to be up is down, everything that’s supposed to be down is up.”
What’s Next
The Trump administration is continuing trade talks with dozens of its partners seeking to make fresh deals that will alleviate some, if not all, of the tariffs he has imposed on them, and avert countermeasures against the U.S.
This article uses reporting by The Associated Press.
