Democrats in a Trump-backing Florida district are raising their hopes of a long shot win in a special election to replace disgraced former rep. Matt Gaetz, buoyed by sentiment about federal spending cuts and disgruntled veterans.
The April 1 election in Florida’s 1st Congressional District puts Democratic challenger Gay Valimont against Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer and Trump endorsee. The Republicans under Trump carried the district by twice the Democratic vote in 2020.
The seat became vacant following Gaetz’s resignation on November 13. He had been nominated by Trump for attorney general—until he was derailed by an investigation into alleged sexual misconduct, which he denied.
Why it Matters
At the heart of Valimont’s underdog bid is a growing backlash and sense of confusion over the cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency Service (DOGE), the advisory body led by billionaire Elon Musk.
DOGE is spearheading a sweeping downsizing of federal agencies, including the Department of Veterans Affairs. As the VA braces for over 80,000 job cuts, critics warn the blowback could reach even the most conservative corners of the country.
The seat may offer a case study in how DOGE’s activity is cutting through to Trump’s voter base, and how much of a threat it is—if at all—to the Republican Party’s narrow control of Congress at the 2026 midterm elections.
What to Know
Florida’s 1st District is home to more veterans than any other in the United States, with more than 89,000 living in the Panhandle region, and the area is known for its strong support of the military.
The local economy depends heavily on defense spending, and veterans there are closely tied to federal benefits, hiring programs, and health care services.
Patronis, a former state lawmaker who has served as CFO since 2017, has campaigned as a staunch Trump ally, echoing the president’s push to reduce what they call bloated federal bureaucracy.
But even some local Republicans are questioning the wisdom of cuts that target essential services in their district. “He needs to stand up and say: ‘You want to make cuts? That’s fine. But don’t do it here,'” said Jason Boatwright, a former Gaetz staffer.
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
Despite assurances from VA Secretary Doug Collins that “mission-critical positions” would be exempt from cuts, the proposed layoffs have stoked fears that front-line services could be compromised.
“We have a demonstrated need in this area. And yet they’re going to cut VA services,” Milton Mayor Heather Lindsay, a Republican, told reporters.
A VA clinic in Pensacola, described by locals as overburdened and under-resourced, is one of many facilities bracing for staffing reductions.
“We need an emergency room,” said Tim Chandler, a Marine Corps veteran who volunteers at the Pensacola clinic. “We need a bigger building. We need incentives for more doctors.”
Valimont, who previously led the Florida chapter of Moms Demand Action, is framing the election as a referendum on the dismantling of federal agencies.
“Imagine if Matt Gaetz’s seat saves the Department of Education,” she told voters at a town hall, referring to Trump’s executive order to close down the DOE. “We have a shot to make this right.”
Her campaign has raised more than $6 million from January 9 to March 12, and drawn volunteers from across the country. That compares to $1.1 million for Patronis.
Josh Weil, a Democrat running in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, who is also outraising his Republican opponent, despite campaigning in a heavily red area, said he is hearing about Musk and the VA cuts on the doorstep.
“It doesn’t matter what type of door we’re knocking on, people are unhappy because they didn’t vote for that. No one voted for him,” Weil said of Musk, according to the Florida Phoenix.
“But even among people who voted for Donald Trump, they never thought that he would, that there would be cuts to the VA.”
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Still, Vailmont’s chances are slim on past performance for Democrats.
Florida’s 1st Congressional District has been one of the most Republican-leaning districts in the country and the GOP has held the district since 1995. The area, which encompasses Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and parts of Walton counties, is considered so reliably red that Democratic candidates rarely invest heavily in general elections.
The 2025 special election marks the first significant national attention on the district in decades, but political analysts still consider a Democratic win a serious long shot.
What People Are Saying
Patronis dismissed legal concerns about DOGE’s efforts to override Congress-approved programs, saying: “Everything that President Trump has rolled out so far, we’ve been lockstep on,” he said in an interview. “If Congress right now had a problem with what the president’s doing, you would see Congress act.”
Trump gave his public backing of Patronis in a post on Truth Social, saying: ” [He] has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Congress. As your next Congressman, Jimmy will work tirelessly alongside of me to Grow our Economy, Secure our Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Brave Military/Vets, Restore American Energy DOMINANCE, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment.”
But even loyal Republicans like Mayor Lindsay question Patronis’s stance. She said: “There are a lot of people who think it’s probably not even worth their time. Because that leader’s not going to listen to them, because they’re only listening to President Trump and Elon Musk.”
Doug Stauffer, chair of the Okaloosa County GOP, said a loss in the 1st District is unthinkable: “If we don’t win decisively, then we have failed.”
What’s Next
Valimont is attempting to turn traditional GOP strengths—support for veterans, defense and rule-of-law—against Patronis by highlighting the local impacts of federal overreach.
Her campaign has also tied Patronis to Florida’s property insurance crisis, citing his regulatory role as CFO in a state with the highest rates in the country.
The April 1 special election is shaping up as a litmus test for the durability of Trump-era conservatism in a district where federal cuts hit close to home.
This article uses reporting by The Associated Press.
